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GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

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9 months ago

March 9, 2023

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the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

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The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter and was worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 0.3%.

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.

But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.

“We’re not in recession, but it’s clear the economy’s growth is slowing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The economy is close to stall speed, moving forward but barely.”

Markets reacted little to the news, with stocks slightly lower at the open. Government bond yields mostly declined, with the biggest drops at the shorter-duration end of the curve.

A separate report Thursday showed that layoffs remain elevated. Initial jobless claims totaled 256,000 for the week ended July 23, a decline of 5,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous week but higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 249,000, according to the Labor Department.

Contents hide

1 Broad-based slowdown

2 Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

3 The recession question

Broad-based slowdown

The decline in GDP came from a broad swath of factors, including decreases in inventories, residential and nonresidential investment, and government spending at the federal, state and local levels. Gross private domestic investment tumbled 13.5% for the three-month period

Consumer spending, as measured through personal consumption expenditures, increased just 1% for the period as inflation accelerated. Spending on services accelerated during the period by 4.1%, but that was offset by declines in nondurable goods of 5.5% and durable goods of 2.6%.

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Inventories, which helped boost GDP in 2021, were a drag on growth in the second quarter, subtracting 2 percentage points from the total.

Inflation was at the root of much of the economy’s troubles. The consumer price index rose 8.6% in the quarter, the fastest pace since Q4 of 1981. That resulted in a decline of inflation-adjusted after-tax personal income of 0.5%, while the personal saving rate was 5.2%, down from 5.6% in the first quarter.

“It really was to script,” Zandi said of the report. “The only encouraging thing was that inventories played such a large role. They won’t play the same role in the coming quarter. Hopefully, consumers keep spending and businesses keep investing and if they do we’ll avoid a recession.”

The recession question

After posting its strongest gain since 1984 last year, the U.S. economy began to slow earlier this year due to a confluence of factors.

Supply chain issues, brought about initially by outsized demand for goods over services during the Covid pandemic, were at the core of the problem. That only intensified when Russia invaded Ukraine in February and, more recently, when China enacted strict shutdown measures to battle a burst of Covid cases.

The first-quarter numbers also were brought down by a swelling trade imbalance and a slowdown in inventories, which were responsible for much of the GDP gains in the second half of 2021.

Now, the economy faces more fundamental problems.

Inflation began its steep ascent a year ago and then exploded in 2022, hitting its highest 12-month increase since 1981 in June. A slow-footed response by policymakers initially has resulted in some of the biggest interest rate increases the U.S. has ever seen.

The Federal Reserve over the past four months has raised benchmark borrowing rates by 2.25 percentage points. Back-to-back 0.75 percentage point increases in June and July mark the most aggressive two-month hikes since the Fed began using overnight rates as the primary policy tool in the early 1990s.

“Recent economic data may not paint a consistent picture, but a second consecutive negative quarter for GDP provides further evidence that, at best, economic momentum continued its marked slowdown,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “The path for the Fed to raise interest rates without pushing the economy into recession has become exceptionally narrow. There’s a growing possibility that it may have already closed.”

Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said he expects the increases to tamp down inflation but he does not see the economy in recession.

The economic slowdown has created a political headache for the White House as well. Following Thursday’s report, President Joe Biden said, “it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation.”

“But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden added.

Most economists don’t expect the NBER to declare an official recession, despite the consecutive quarters of negative growth. Since 1948, the economy has never seen consecutive quarterly growth declines without being in a recession.

The feeling, though, on Wall Street is that the economy could well hit recession later this year or in 2023 but is not in one now.

That may not be enough to change public perception, however. A Morning Consult/Politico poll earlier this month indicated that 65% of registered voters, including 78% of Republicans, think the economy already is in a recession.

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Unveiling the Essence of Tangiers Tobacco

Published

3 days ago

November 25, 2023

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For those who love hookahs, Tangiers Tobacco is more than just a brand to smoke—it’s an adventure into the world of tastes. We shall go into great detail on the history, types, and customs of Tangiers tobacco in this post.

What makes Tangiers Tobacco Unique?

Tangiers Tobacco is a well blended product that enhances the hookah experience rather than just being tobacco. Although its origins are ancient, what makes it special is the careful farming, harvesting, and processing that results in a flavor profile that is unmatched.

The Origins of Tangiers Tobacco

Tangiers Tobacco

Take a historical tour to discover the origins of Tangiers Tobacco. Learn how this flavor has changed and endured over time, from traditional uses to current farming.

Tangiers Tobacco Varieties

Explore the wide-ranging universe of Tangiers Tobacco. Discover the vast selection that suits all palates, from traditional mixes to cutting-edge flavors.

Cultivation Techniques

Learn about the science and art involved in producing excellent Tangiers tobacco. To cultivate the ideal blend, every detail counts, from climate considerations to soil makeup.

Harvesting and Processing

Trace Tangiers Tobacco’s path from the fields to your hookah. Discover the painstaking harvesting and processing method that guarantees the best quality possible in each puff.

Why Tangiers Tobacco Stands Out

What distinguishes Tangiers Tobacco from other mixtures? Discover the special features that hookah enthusiasts love about it.

The Art of Smoking Tangiers

Discover the best ways to make the most of your time in Tangiers. Learn how to smoke this unique blend, from filling the bowl to controlling the fire.

Tangiers Tobacco and Health

Address prevailing worries and misconceptions regarding Tangiers tobacco’s effects on health. Keeping fiction apart, recognize its role in a smoker’s way of life.

Tangiers Tobacco Culture

Tangiers tobacco has cultural importance in addition to being smoke-free. Examine how it contributes to festivities, social events, and the sense of community it creates.

Pairing Tangiers Tobacco

Tangiers Tobacco

Choose the proper food and beverages to go along with your smoking session. Learn how to combine tastes to bring out the best in Tangiers Tobacco.

Tangiers Tobacco Community

Make internet connections with communities and other hobbyists. Participate in conversations about this distinctive smoking culture and share your experiences and advice.

FAQs About Tangiers Tobacco

Q1: What makes Tangiers Tobacco special?
A1: Tangiers Tobacco stands out for its…

Q2: How is Tangiers Tobacco different from regular tobacco?
A2: Unlike traditional blends…

Q3: Are there health risks associated with Tangiers Tobacco?
A3: Studies suggest…

Q4: Can I mix different Tangiers Tobacco flavors?
A4: Absolutely! Mixing flavors…

Q5: Where can I buy authentic Tangiers Tobacco?
A5: Look for reputable…

Q6: How do I achieve the best flavor when smoking Tangiers Tobacco?
A6: To enhance the flavor…

Q7: Tips for Buying Tangiers Tobacco
A7: When purchasing Tangiers Tobacco, look for…

Q8: Making Your Tangiers Tobacco Mix
A8: Customize your smoking experience by blending…

Conclusion

In summary, Tangiers Tobacco is a cultural phenomenon more than just a place to smoke. It remains a connoisseur’s choice thanks to its extensive history, wide range of flavors, and international fan base. Accept the voyage, relish the tastes, and immerse yourself in Tangiers Tobacco’s lively universe.

Also Visit: Hookah Coals Near Me: Unveiling the Ultimate Smoking Experience

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Hookah Coals Near Me: Unveiling the Ultimate Smoking Experience

Published

3 days ago

November 25, 2023

Odyssey

Post Views: 60

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The search for the ideal hookah coals begins here, in the world of extraordinary hookah experiences. To enjoy a rich and enjoyable smoke, it’s important to choose the best hookah coals nearby, regardless of experience level. We’ll take you on a journey to discover the subtleties of hookah coals in this guide, leading you to the greatest solutions out there.

Exploring the Variety

Understanding the Types of Hookah Coals

Explore the vast realm of hookah coals to start your hookah journey. We weigh the benefits and drawbacks of each alternative, from instant lighting to natural coconut coals, so you can make an informed decision.

The Advantages of Coconut Hookah Coals

Hookah Coals Near Me

Find out why many aficionados now favor coconut hookah coals over other options. We discuss their long-lasting burn, eco-friendliness, and overall hookah experience enhancement.

Quick-Lighting Coals: A Convenient Option

Coal may be a quick-lighting option for convenience-seekers. We go over how quickly they ignite and point out circumstances in which they might work best for your hookah sessions.

Navigating the Market

Local Smoke Shops: Your Go-To for Immediate Needs

Look into the convenience of nearby smoking establishments to locate hookah coals. We offer guidance on what to consider and how to guarantee the quality of the coals you are buying.

Online Retailers: A World of Options at Your Fingertips

Explore the wide range of options provided by internet merchants. We walk you through the process of navigating internet marketplaces to discover the ideal hookah coals, from specialized brands to affordable options.

Hookah Coals Near Me: Ensuring Quality

Key Factors in Choosing Hookah Coals

Hookah Coals Near Me

Find out the important things to think about when choosing hookah coals. We present a checklist that covers everything from burn time to ash generation to ensure you get the most out of the coals you’ve selected.

Customer Reviews: Your Insightful Guide

Discover how to interpret customer reviews to help you make informed decisions. We go over things to look for to make sure the hookah coals you buy meet your expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Are Quick-Lighting Coals Safe to Use?
A1: Quick-lighting coals often raise safety concerns. We address these worries, providing insights into proper usage and dispelling common myths.

Q2: How Long Do Coconut Hookah Coals Last?
A2: Understanding the burn time of coconut hookah coals is crucial. We share tips on maximizing their lifespan for extended and enjoyable hookah sessions.

Q3: Where Can I Find Premium Hookah Coals Locally?
A3: Locating premium hookah coals locally can be a challenge. We offer suggestions and strategies to identify reliable sources in your area.

Q4: Can I Mix Different Types of Hookah Coals?
A4: Curious about experimenting with various coals? We offer guidance on mixing different types for a personalized hookah experience.

Q5: What Sets High-Quality Hookah Coals Apart?
A5: Dive deep into the characteristics that distinguish high-quality hookah coals, ensuring you make a choice that elevates your smoking sessions.

Q6: How Often Should I Clean My Hookah Coals?
A6: Maintaining clean hookah coals is vital for flavor consistency. We provide a step-by-step guide on cleaning frequency and methods.

Conclusion

Armed with knowledge and ideas, you’re sure to take your hookah sessions to new heights as you go out on your quest to locate the ideal hookah coals nearby. The secret is to make an informed choice according to your tastes, regardless of whether you choose the quick-lighting convenience of coals or the environmentally friendly appeal of coconut coals.