Central banks embrace big rises to bolster currencies and fight inflation

Analysts point to signs of ‘reverse currency war’ as policymakers try to stem imported inflation A string of big rate rises by the Federal Reserve has put pressure on central banks around the world to …

Central banks embrace big rises to bolster currencies and fight inflation
Analysts point to signs of ‘reverse currency war’ as policymakers try to stem imported inflation
A string of big rate rises by the Federal Reserve has put pressure on central banks around the world to follow suit to counter soaring inflation and the strong dollar.

A Financial Times analysis found that central banks are now, more than at any other time this century, opting for large rate rises of 50 basis points or more, laying bare the challenges of tackling price pressures and higher US rates.

Rises by the Fed, including its first 75 basis point increase since 1994, and fears over the health of the global economy, have bolstered the US dollar against almost all currencies. As many goods are priced in dollars on international markets, the strong dollar adds to inflationary pressures by raising the cost of imports — creating what analysts have described as a “reverse currency war” between monetary policymakers.

“We’re seeing a rate hike feeding frenzy,” said James Athey, a senior portfolio manager at Abrdn, an investment company. “It’s the reverse of what we saw in the last decade . . . Nowadays the last thing anyone wants is a weak currency.”

Canadian policymakers became the latest to surprise markets with a bigger than expected rise, opting for a 100 basis point increase on Wednesday, the largest by any G7 economy since 1998. The Philippines raised rates by 75 basis points the following day.

In the three months to June, 62 policy rate increases of at least 50 basis points were made by the 55 central banks tracked by the Financial Times. Another 17 big increases of 50 basis points or more have been made in July so far, marking the biggest number of large rate moves at any time since the turn of the millennium and eclipsing the most recent global monetary tightening cycle, which was in the run-up to the global financial crisis.

“We’ve seen this pivot point in the market where 50 is the new 25,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank.